TPG2018 Chapter II paragraph 2.142

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If each party shares the assumption of economically significant risks or separately assumes inter-related, economically significant risks, and a transactional profit split is considered to be the most appropriate method, it is likely that a split of actual profits, rather than anticipated profits, will be warranted since those actual profits, i.e. the actual relevant profits to be split, will reflect the playing out of the risks of each party. Conversely, a profit split of anticipated profits will tend to concentrate the playing out of economically significant risks on one party. That is, the transfer pricing outcome—a sharing of actual or anticipated profits—should align with the accurate delineation of the transaction. See section C.4.1 below on splits of actual and anticipated profits.






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