The valuation of expected loss method would estimate the value of a guarantee on the basis of calculating the probability of default and making adjustments to account for the expected recovery rate in the event of default. This would then be applied to the nominal amount guaranteed to arrive at a cost of providing the guarantee. The guarantee could then be priced based on an expected return on this amount of capital based on commercial pricing models such as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) ...

Pricing under each model will be sensitive to the assumptions made in the modelling process. Whatever valuation model is used, the evaluation of cost method sets a minimum fee for the guarantee (the minimum amount that the provider of the guarantee will be willing to accept) and does not of itself necessarily reflect the outcome of a bargain made at arm’s length. The arm’s length amount should be derived from a consideration of the perspectives (taking into account options realistically available) of the borrower and guarantor ...